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dc.contributor.authorColomer, M. Àngels (Maria Àngels)
dc.contributor.authorMargalida, Antoni
dc.contributor.authorAlòs, Francesc
dc.contributor.authorOliva-Vidal, Pilar
dc.contributor.authorVilella, Anna
dc.contributor.authorFraile Sauce, Lorenzo José
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-30T08:22:58Z
dc.date.available2021-06-30T08:22:58Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/71524
dc.description.abstractA new bioinspired computational model was developed for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic using the available epidemiological information, high-resolution population density data, travel patterns, and the average number of contacts between people. The effectiveness of control measures such as contact reduction measures, closure of communities (lockdown), protective measures (social distancing, face mask wearing, and hand hygiene), and vaccination were modelled to examine possibilities for control of the disease under several protective vaccination levels in the population. Lockdown and contact reduction measures only delay the spread of the virus in the population because it resumes its previous dynamics as soon as the restrictions are lifted. Nevertheless, these measures are probably useful to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed in the short term. Our model predicted that 56% of the Spanish population would have been infected and subsequently recovered over a 130 day period if no protective measures were taken but this percentage would have been only 34% if protective measures had been put in place. Moreover, this percentage would have been further reduced to 41.7, 27.7, and 13.3% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated, respectively. Finally, this percentage would have been even lower at 25.5, 12.1 and 7.9% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated in combination with the application of protective measures, respectively. Therefore, a combination of protective measures and vaccination would be highly efficacious in decreasing not only the number of those who become infected and subsequently recover, but also the number of people who die from infection, which falls from 0.41% of the population over a 130 day period without protective measures to 0.15, 0.08 and 0.06% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated in combination with protective measures at the same time, respectively.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was partially funded by the University of Lleida (UdL). The comments of four anonymous reviewers improved a previous version of this article.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.isformatofVersió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147816
dc.relation.ispartofScience of the Total Environment, 2021, vol. 789, núm. 147816, p. 1-11
dc.rightscc-by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2021
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectVaccination
dc.subjectPandemic management
dc.subjectPandemic control measures
dc.titleModelling the SARS-COV-2 outbreak: assessing the usefulness of protective measures to reduce the pandemic at population level
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.date.updated2021-06-30T08:22:58Z
dc.identifier.idgrec031302
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147816


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cc-by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2021
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as cc-by-nc-nd (c) Elsevier, 2021