Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; Aunins, Ainars; Brotons, Lluís; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Campedelli, Tommaso; Chodkiewicz, Tomasz; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Crowe, Olivia; Elts, Jaanus; Escandell, Virginia; Foppen, Ruud; Heldbjerg, Henning; Herrando, Sergi; Husby, Magne; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindström, Åke; Noble, David G.; Paquet, Jean-Yves; Reif, Jiří; Sattler, Thomas; Szép, Tibor; Teufelbauer, Norbert; Trautmann, Sven; van Strien, Arco; van Turnhout, Chris A.M.; Vorisek, Petr; Willis, Stephen G.

doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4858

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Issue date

2016-04-01

Author

Stephens, Philip A.

Mason, Lucy R.

Green, Rhys E.

Gregory, Richard D.

Sauer, John R.

Alison, Jamie

Aunins, Ainars

Brotons, Lluís

Butchart, Stuart H. M.

Campedelli, Tommaso

Chodkiewicz, Tomasz

Chylarecki, Przemysław

Crowe, Olivia

Elts, Jaanus

Escandell, Virginia

Foppen, Ruud

Heldbjerg, Henning

Herrando, Sergi

Husby, Magne

Jiguet, Frédéric

Lehikoinen, Aleksi

Lindström, Åke

Noble, David G.

Paquet, Jean-Yves

Reif, Jiří

Sattler, Thomas

Szép, Tibor

Teufelbauer, Norbert

Trautmann, Sven

van Strien, Arco

van Turnhout, Chris A.M.

Vorisek, Petr

Willis, Stephen G.

Suggested citation

Stephens, Philip A.; Mason, Lucy R.; Green, Rhys E.; Gregory, Richard D.; Sauer, John R.; Alison, Jamie; ... Willis, Stephen G.. (2016) . Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents. Science, 2016, vol. 352, núm. 6281, p. 84-87. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4858.

Abstract

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species, and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. Here, we use long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the USA to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the Climate Impact Indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/69901

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4858

Is part of

Science, 2016, vol. 352, núm. 6281, p. 84-87

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