Linear-Gompertz Model-Based Regression of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Satellite Imagery-Based Solar Irradiance
Kim, Chang Ki
MetadataShow full item record
A simple yet accurate photovoltaic (PV) performance curve as a function of satellite-based solar irradiation is necessary to develop a PV power forecasting model that can cover all of South Korea, where more than 35,000 PV power plants are currently in operation. In order to express the nonlinear power output of the PV module with respect to the hourly global horizontal irradiance derived from satellite images, this study employed the Gompertz model, which is composed of three parameters and the sigmoid equation. The nonphysical behavior of the Gompertz model within the low solar irradiation range was corrected by combining a linear equation with the same gradient at the conjoint point. The overall fitness of Linear-Gompertz regression to the 242 PV power plants representing the country was R2 = 0.85 and nRMSE = 0.09. The Gompertz model coefficients showed normal distributions and equivariance of standard deviations of less than 15% by year and by season. Therefore, it can be conjectured that the Linear-Gompertz model represents the whole country’s PV system performance curve. In addition, the Gompertz coefficient C, which controls the growth rate of the curve, showed a strong correlation with the capacity factor, such that the regression equation for the capacity factor could be derived as a function of the three Gompertz model coefficients with a fitness of R2 = 0.88.
Is part ofEnergies, 2020, vol. 13, núm. 4, a781
European research projects
The following license files are associated with this item:
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models Pozo Fernández, Carlos; Marín-Sanguino, Alberto; Alves, Rui; Guillén Gosálbez, Gonzalo; Jiménez Esteller, Laureano; Sorribas Tello, Albert (BioMed Central, 2011)Background: Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be ...
Petrichenko, Ksenia; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Cabeza, Luisa F. (Elsevier, 2019)With the Paris Agreement coming into force, global efforts will need to maximize opportunities through energy efficiency and renewable energy generation. Zero energy/carbon initiatives are mushrooming worldwide, but it has ...
Thermal energy storage (TES) with phase change materials (PCM) in solar power plants (CSP). Concept and plant performance Prieto, Cristina; Cabeza, Luisa F. (Elsevier, 2019)Concentrated solar power (CSP) is today recognized as a unique renewable energy for electricity generation due to its capability to provide dispatchable electricity incorporating thermal energy storage (TES). Molten salts ...