Modeling the influence of eucalypt plantation on wildfire occurrence in the Brazilian savanna biome
MetadataShow full item record
In the last decades, eucalypt plantations are expanding across the Brazilian savanna, one of the most frequently burned ecosystems in the world. Wildfires are one of the main threats to forest plantations, causing economic and environmental loss. Modeling wildfire occurrence provides a better understanding of the processes that drive fire activity. Furthermore, the use of spatially explicit models may promote more effective management strategies and support fire prevention policies. In this work, we assessed wildfire occurrence combining Random Forest (RF) algorithms and cluster analysis to predict and detect changes in the spatial pattern of ignition probability over time. The model was trained using several explanatory drivers related to fire ignition: accessibility, proximity to agricultural lands or human activities, among others. Specifically, we introduced the progression of eucalypt plantations on a two-year basis to capture the influence of land cover changes over fire likelihood consistently. Fire occurrences in the period 2010–2016 were retrieved from the Brazilian Institute of Space Research (INPE) database. In terms of the AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve), the model denoted fairly good predictive accuracy (AUC ≈ 0.72). Results suggested that fire occurrence was mainly linked to proximity agricultural and to urban interfaces. Eucalypt plantation contributed to increased wildfire likelihood and denoted fairly high importance as an explanatory variable (17% increase of Mean Square Error [MSE]). Nevertheless, agriculture and urban interfaces proved to be the main drivers, contributing to decreasing the RF’s MSE in 42% and 38%, respectively. Furthermore, eucalypt plantations expansion is progressing over clusters of high wildfire likelihood, thus increasing the exposure to wildfire events for young eucalypt plantations and nearby areas. Protective measures should be focus on in the mapped Hot Spot zones in order to mitigate the exposure to fire events and to contribute for an efficient initial suppression rather than costly firefighting.
Is part ofForests, 2019, vol. 10, núm. 10, article number 844
European research projects
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Modelling temporal variation of fire-occurrence towards the dynamic prediction of human wildfire ignition danger in northeast Spain Martín, Yago; Zúñiga Antón, María; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos (Taylor & Francis, 2018)Models of human-caused ignition probability are typically developed from static or structural points of view. This research analyzes the intra-annual dimension of fire occurrence and fire-triggering factors in NE Spain ...
A comprehensive spatial-temporal analysis of driving factors of human-caused wildfires in Spain using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; De la Riva, Juan (Elsevier, 2018-08-01)Over the last decades, authorities responsible on forest fire have encouraged research on fire triggering factors, recognizing this as a critical point to achieve a greater understanding of fire occurrence patterns and ...
Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; González-Hidalgo, José Carlos; Peña-Angulo, Dhais; Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián (Elsevier, 2018-10-15)In this paper we present a detailed spatial assessment of the association between atmospheric synoptic conditions (the weather types, WT) and fires on the Spanish mainland. The WT approach allows the continuum of atmospheric ...