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dc.contributor.authorMartín, Yago
dc.contributor.authorZúñiga Antón, María
dc.contributor.authorRodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos
dc.description.abstractModels of human-caused ignition probability are typically developed from static or structural points of view. This research analyzes the intra-annual dimension of fire occurrence and fire-triggering factors in NE Spain and moves forward towards more accurate predictions. Applying the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) and using wildfire data (2008–2011) and GIS and remote sensing data for the explanatory variables, we construct eight occurrence data scenarios by splitting wildfire records into the four seasons and then separating each season into working and non-working days. We assess model accuracy using a cross-validation k-fold procedure and an operational validation with 2012 data. Results report a substantial contribution of accessibility across models, often coupled with Land Surface Temperature. In addition, we observe great temporal variability, with WAI strongly influencing winter models, whereas distance to roads stands out during working days. Model performances stand consistently above 0.8 AUC in all temporal scenarios, with outstanding predictive effectiveness during summer months. The comparison among static-to-dynamic approaches reveals superior performance of simulations considering temporal scenarios, with AUC values from 0.7 to 0.85. Overall, we believe our approach is reliable enough to derive dynamic predictions of human-caused fire occurrence.ca_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded jointly from a predoctoral Fulbright-Iberdrola grant, a ‘Juan de la Cierva’ postdoctoral fellowship grant (FJCI-2016-31090) at the Univesity of Lleida, and the research group GEOT, from the University of Zaragoza.ca_ES
dc.publisherTaylor & Francisca_ES
dc.relation.isformatofReproducció del document publicat a:
dc.relation.ispartofGeomatics, natural hazards & risk, 2018, vol. 10, núm. 1, p. 385-411ca_ES
dc.rightscc-by, (c) Martín et al., 2018ca_ES
dc.subjectIgnition dangerca_ES
dc.subjectHuman driversca_ES
dc.subjectTemporal dimensionca_ES
dc.titleModelling temporal variation of fire-occurrence towards the dynamic prediction of human wildfire ignition danger in northeast Spainca_ES

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cc-by, (c) Martín et al., 2018
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