Human-caused fire occurrence modelling in perspective: a review

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2017
Author
Costafreda Aumedes, Sergi
Comas Rodríguez, Carles
Vega García, Cristina
Suggested citation
Costafreda Aumedes, Sergi; Comas Rodríguez, Carles; Vega García, Cristina; . (2017) . Human-caused fire occurrence modelling in perspective: a review. International Journal of Wildland Fire, vol. 26, núm. 12, p. 983-998. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17026.
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Abstract
The increasing global concern about wildfires, mostly caused by people, has triggered the development of human-caused fire occurrence models in many countries. The premise is that better knowledge of the underlying factors is critical for many fire management purposes, such as operational decision-making in suppression and strategic prevention planning, or guidance on forest and land-use policies. However, the explanatory and predictive capacity of fire occurrence models is not yet widely applied to the management of forests, fires or emergencies. In this article, we analyse the developments in the field of human-caused fire occurrence modelling with the aim of identifying the most appropriate variables and methods for applications in forest and fire management and civil protection. We stratify our worldwide analysis by temporal dimension (short-term and long-term) and by model output (numeric or binary), and discuss management applications. An attempt to perform a meta-analysis based on published models proved limited because of non-equivalence of the metrics and units of the estimators and outcomes across studies, the diversity of models and the lack of information in published works.
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http://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/62397
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1071/WF17026
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International Journal of Wildland Fire, vol. 26, núm. 12, p. 983-998
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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) IAWF, 2017
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as cc-by-nc-nd, (c) IAWF, 2017