Uncertainty of the peak flow reconstruction of the 1907 flood in the Ebro River in Xerta (NE Iberian Peninsula)
Ruiz Bellet, Josep Lluís
Castelltort Aiguabella, F. Xavier
Tuset Mestre, Jordi
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There is no clear, unified and accepted method to estimate the uncertainty of hydraulic modelling results. In historical floods reconstruction, due to the lower precision of input data, the magnitude of this uncertainty could reach a high value. With the objectives of giving an estimate of the peak flow error of a typical historical flood reconstruction with the model HEC-RAS and of providing a quick, simple uncertainty assessment that an end user could easily apply, the uncertainty of the reconstructed peak flow of a major flood in the Ebro River (NE Iberian Peninsula) was calculated with a set of local sensitivity analyses on six input variables. The peak flow total error was estimated at ±31% and water height was found to be the most influential variable on peak flow, followed by Manning’s n. However, the latter, due to its large uncertainty, was the greatest contributor to peak flow total error. Besides, the HEC-RAS resulting peak flow was compared to the ones obtained with the 2D model Iber and with Manning’s equation; all three methods gave similar peak flows. Manning’s equation gave almost the same result than HEC-RAS. The main conclusion is that, to ensure the lowest peak flow error, the reliability and precision of the flood mark should be thoroughly assessed.
Is part ofJournal of Hydrology, 2017, vol. 545, p. 339–354
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Pino González, David; Ruiz Bellet, Josep Lluís; Balasch Solanes, J. Carles (Josep Carles); Romero León, Laura; Tuset Mestre, Jordi; Barriendos i Vallvé, Mariano; Mazón Bueso, Jordi; Castelltort Aiguabella, F. Xavier (Elsevier, 2016-10)This paper analyses the meteorological conditions and the specific peak flows of 24 catastrophic floods that affected NE Iberian Peninsula in the period 1842-2000. We classify these floods according to the affected area, ...
Balasch Solanes, J. Carles (Josep Carles); Pino González, David; Ruiz Bellet, Josep Lluís; Tuset Mestre, Jordi; Barriendos i Vallvé, Mariano; Castelltort Aiguabella, F. Xavier; Peña, Juan Carlos (Elsevier, 2018-07-24)Reliable and complete knowledge of the historical floods is necessary for understanding the extreme hydrological dynamics of the rivers, their natural variability and anthropic changes. In this work we reconstruct the most ...
Improvement of flood frequency analysis with historical information in different types of catchments and data series within the Ebro River basin (NE Iberian Peninsula) Ruiz Bellet, Josep Lluís; Balasch Solanes, J. Carles (Josep Carles); Tuset Mestre, Jordi; Monserrate, Adrián; Sánchez, Alberto (Gebrüder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015-10-29)The use of historical information is acknowledged to improve frequency analysis. However, it is not well known if the degree of this improvement depends on the characteristics of both the catch-ment and the data series. ...