Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico

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2016Suggested citation
Temiño Villota, Salomé;
Rodríguez Trejo, Dante A.;
Molina Terrén, Domingo;
Ryan, Kevin C.;
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(2016)
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Modelling initial mortality of Abies religiosa in a crown fire in Mexico.
Forest Systems, 2016, vol. 25, núm. 1, e047.
https://doi.org/10.5424/fs/2016251-06887.
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Aim of study: The objectives of this work were to determine which morphological and fire severity variables may help explain
the mortality of adult Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., to model the probability of this species after being affected by
crown fire, and to obtain more elements to classify the sacred fir in terms of fire resistance. This type of study is relevant to understand
and estimate the impacts of crown fires on the climax forests formed by this species.
Area of study: The burned forest was located in the southern Mexico City, borough.
Material and methods: Morphological variables and fire severity indicators were collected for 335 Abies religiosa trees burned
by a mixed severity fire. Logistic regression was used to analyze data and develop models that best explained tree mortality.
Main results: Survival was 26.9%. The models for height (p≤0.0001), diameter at breast height (p=0.0082), crown length
(p≤0.0001) and crown base height (p≤0.0001) were significant, with a negative relationship between each one of these variables
and probability of mortality. The significant severity variables were lethal scorch height (p≤0.0001) and crown kill (p≤ 0.0001),
which have a direct relationship with probability of mortality.
Highlights: This species is moderately fire-resistant. Crown kill ≥ 70% markedly increases mortality. Silvicultural activities such
as pruning, thinning and fuel management can reduce the risk of crown fires.
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Forest Systems, 2016, vol. 25, núm. 1, e047European research projects
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